Unlocking Africa's Critical Minerals: Achieving Broad Prosperity and Global Competitiveness

The global race for critical minerals has already begun. As the energy transition accelerates, demand for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and manganese is growing at an unprecedented rate. Africa, endowed with abundant mineral resources, has long played the role of a raw material exporter. Faced with this historic opportunity, can Africa make the leap from extraction to processing, from resources to industry? Experts at the Brookings Institution have proposed a path in their latest report.

I. Background: The Strategic Value of Critical Minerals Comes to the Fore

According to data from the Brookings Institution, by 2040, global lithium demand will be 4.5 times current levels, and graphite demand will be 2.3 times. However, mineral extraction and processing are highly concentrated: China accounts for 60% of global mining output and 91% of processing. This concentration has raised concerns about supply chain security and prompted the world to seek more diversified supply sources.

Africa's position is very unique: it accounts for 76% of global manganese production and 69% of cobalt production, but in refining, it holds only 9% of copper and less than 5% of other major minerals. Africa's share of global value in clean energy technology and component manufacturing is less than 1%. This is both a shortcoming and a huge opportunity for value addition.

II. Development Logic: From Resource Dependence to Development Leverage

Africa cannot blindly rush into the mineral race. The report emphasizes that historical lessons should be learned so that resource development benefits citizens, the environment, and future generations. The key is to integrate mineral development with broader development goals.

Infrastructure: For the Mines, and Even More for the Future

Mining requires substantial energy and transportation infrastructure. For example, financing needs for the railway and port for Guinea's Simandou iron ore mine are at least $6 billion; completing the Lobito Corridor from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to Angola may require $2.4 billion. The African Development Bank's infrastructure projects are expected to need $360 billion by 2040.

But the report points out that designing these projects solely from the single perspective of mining exports is costly, short-sighted, and inefficient. Countries along mining corridors can invest in complementary infrastructure—secondary roads, special economic zones, urban infrastructure—thereby unlocking greater development potential. The success of Morocco's Tanger Med port is a case in point: its supporting industrial zone now hosts 1,200 companies, has created 110,000 jobs, and generates $15 billion in annual exports. The port's success lies not only in the port itself, but also in the supporting infrastructure and business environment.

Employment: Greater Opportunities Beyond the Mines

According to calculations, by 2040, the four major minerals—copper, cobalt, nickel, and lithium—will add about 286,000 formal mining jobs. Boston Consulting Group estimates that $1 billion in mining and processing investment can create 3,000 to 6,000 direct jobs, contribute $210 million to $280 million to GDP in steady state, increase government revenue by $70 million to $100 million per year, and drive $100 million in regional infrastructure investment. Therefore, policymakers should focus on how to support and amplify these spillover effects.

III. Significance for Local Development: Cultivating a Local Industrial EcosystemAfrican countries can capitalize on the expansion of critical minerals in five ways, with the following two being particularly crucial.

First, Support Local Mining Suppliers

Local enterprises can become an important source of employment, but they need adequate support. Many countries already have local content regulations, but these have been ineffective due to insufficient enforcement and the difficulty local suppliers face in meeting the requirements of international mining companies. Ghana is a positive example: in 2020, local procurement of mining goods and services reached US$2.67 billion, exceeding half of mining revenue.

The challenges facing local suppliers include: financial constraints (which can be addressed through supplier development funds, such as South Africa's Zimele enterprise program); insufficient technology (which can be gradually addressed through joint ventures with international suppliers, as already seen in Burkina Faso and Tanzania); and insufficient scale (which can be addressed by expanding markets through the African Continental Free Trade Area).

Second, Move Up the Upstream Value Chain

African countries can gradually enter the processing and refining stages. Analysis by the African Development Bank points out that local investors can start with rare earth concentrate processing and gradually upgrade to smelting, processing, and refining. The International Energy Agency estimates that if Africa successfully achieves this upgrade, the value of Africa's mineral market will increase by nearly three-quarters by 2040, compared with today's US$120 billion.

This requires substantial efforts to upgrade worker skills, improve transportation infrastructure, and properly manage political and regulatory risks.

4. Impact on Regional Development: Enhancing Competitiveness through the AfCFTA

The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area can help local suppliers expand their scale and form cross-border supply chains and industrial clusters. The development of mineral corridors will also promote regional connectivity—for example, the Lobito Corridor will drive economic integration among the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, and Angola. As processing capacity improves, Africa is expected to transform from a mere resource exporter into an important participant in the global clean energy value chain.

5. Future Outlook: Growth Milestones in the Coming Decade

The global trend toward supply chain diversification has given Africa a rare window of opportunity. If Africa can act quickly, combining infrastructure investment, local industrial development, and value chain upgrading, critical mineral development will become an important engine driving Africa's industrialization and economic growth. By 2040, Africa may not only become a trusted global partner in mineral supply, but is also expected to secure a place in the manufacturing of clean energy technologies.

Of course, this will not happen automatically. It requires policy coordination among countries, sustained investment in human capital, and deepening regional cooperation. But the opportunity is indeed real—Africa has the ability to turn its underground resources into prosperity above ground.